Silver Is Up Over 120% – Are We Entering the Panic Phase?

Silver just surged to over a 120% gain in a single year. This is not normal, folks. The financial world isn't ready, but hopefully you are because if you're reading this, you've probably had that feeling, too, that something's off.

Paper money feels uncertain. Real-world inflation isn't going away. But silver, silver's breaking out big time, and not just in price, but in purpose. For the first time in decades, people are rediscovering it not just as an investment, but as honest money. The kind you can hold in your hand. The kind that can't be printed, cancelled, or inflated away. The kind of money your grandparents understood. And our government fears because silver isn't just having a good year. It might just be entering a new era.

And the question on a lot of people's minds right now is, is it too late to buy silver?
Let's talk about it.

By the way, I'm Noel Lorenzana. I'm not a financial adviser, and none of this is financial or investment advice.

The Pattern That Changes Everything.

I need to show you something because what's happening with silver right now isn't new. It's a pattern we've seen over and over again in every major commodity cycle throughout history. Oil in the 70s, palladium in the 2000s, wheat during the Irish famine, and now silver. Every single time it follows the same four-stage cycle.

Stage one, complacency.
The resource is cheap. It's plentiful and ignored. Since it's cheap, nobody explores for more of it. Nobody invests because there's no profit in it. Everyone assumes there's enough until there isn't. For silver, this was the past 40 years. Unchecked money printing, tech booms, and industrial growth, and somehow silver stayed ridiculously cheap. It really made no sense until you realized the market was being manipulated. That's a fact, not my opinion.

Stage two, surging demand.
This is when new industries emerge. Solar power, electric vehicles, 5G communications, new military tech, and now AI. Silver demand accelerates while mining for the metal can't keep up. You see, silver isn't mined directly. It's mostly a byproduct of other metals mining. You can't just flip a switch and produce more. So the supply is constrained while demand increases.

Stage three, recognition.
This is where we are right now, in my opinion. Markets finally realize this isn't just a fluke. It's not a temporary shortage. It's a structural deficit. And it's been going on for 5 years and counting. Physical inventories are drying up. Paper silver markets are struggling. Industrial buyers are waking up to a new reality, and everyday people are realizing the truth. Silver isn't just an industrial metal; it's honest money.

Stage four, panic.
This is what comes next in a major commodity cycle. When supply can't keep up with demand, when users start stockpiling, when industries start panicking because they need the commodity just to keep production going. At this stage, prices don't just rise; they can explode. And that's why this blog post isn't just about an over 100% move in silver. It's about where we are in the cycle and how close we might be to stage four panic.

The recognition phase.

The silver supply deficit is already here, and the markets are finally starting to realize it. Just a few years ago, the ComX held a couple hundred million ounces of registered silver. Today, I'm hearing less than 60 million ounces. That's about 5 weeks of global industrial demand.

Now, consider that solar demand alone for silver has exploded. In 2023, solar demand reached nearly 200 million ounces. And now looking towards 2026, it's even higher with no signs of slowing down. Now add in electric vehicles, which use twice the silver of gas cars, 5G infrastructure, medical technologies, booming AI tech, and military applications. We're using up silver faster than we can extract it out of the ground. And once it's used up in industry, it's typically gone forever.

And supply is flat or worse declining. And there's a reason for that. You can't just mine more silver. Over 70% of global silver production is a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, zinc, or lead. So unless demand for those metals also explodes, silver supply stays flat. And even if a new silver mine were discovered today, it would take a very long time to get the metal out of the ground. About 7 years. We don't have seven years. The deficit is here now.

And quietly, industrial users are stockpiling it. Governments are likely stockpiling as well, especially the US government who just declared it as strategic. Silver premiums are rising, and delivery delays are increasing. And it makes you wonder if the paper market is losing control.

Every signal is flashing red. The people who need physical silver, not paper promises, are getting nervous because they know a real-world shortage can't be papered over.

And here's what makes it different from every other shortage in history. Silver isn't just a commodity. It's honest money trusted for over 5,000 years. When surging industrial demand collides with a monetary wakeup, you don't get a slow and steady bull market. You get stage four, panic.

The Great Silver Meltup.

Silver isn't rising because of hype. Silver is rising because the system built to suppress it is failing. For decades, Wall Street and global exchanges managed silver prices through paper contracts. One ounce of real silver backed maybe 100 ounces of paper silver contracts. It worked really well and made bankers very wealthy until recently. Because when physical silver starts disappearing, when industrial demand keeps rising, when structural deficits continue, and when people start asking for physical delivery instead of cash settlement, that old game breaks. And it may already be breaking.

It's rumored that the CME Group for futures and options trading has quietly been cash settling large contracts to conceal their inability to deliver. Rumors of coverups with cooling issues at the COMEX are spreading. If you've heard the story, this one is fishy. According to financial journalist Bill Still, a leaked internal JP Morgan email from late 2025 revealed that over 50 traders were ordered to relocate their precious metals operation to Singapore. If true, that move tells you something big is changing in the precious metals world.

And there's another story making the rounds right now. Is JP Morgan quietly accumulating silver? According to a report in the Economic Times, some analysts believe JP Morgan now holds around 750 million ounces of physical hold-in-your-hand silver and reportedly added 21 million ounces in a recent 6-week span. Even more eye opening, the same report says they've exited 200 million of paper short contracts, leaving them with zero short positions on silver for the very first time in a long time. And don't forget, not too long ago, they were found guilty of manipulating the silver market. This is true. This is huge.

Silver as a Strategic Mineral.

And here's another thing. Earlier this year, the US officially classified silver as a strategic mineral. Wow. You see, silver has become essential to our future. Clean energy, never-ending technology, and now honest money. Silver sits at the intersection of all three.

The monetary bid, people running from fiat currencies, from inflation, from instability, is colliding with the industrial bid, the companies and nations that need silver to run their operations and maybe soon back their currencies. There just isn't enough silver to satisfy these demands.

This isn't just a rally. This isn't another market trend. This is a reckoning, and silver is the truth that can't be hidden any longer.

Is it Too Late to Buy Silver?

Circling back to my original question, is it too late to buy silver? That's the question a lot of people are wondering about today. And I get it. Silver has had a massive year in 2025, up over 120% as of writing this blog post. It's finally hitting the headlines and finally getting some much deserved respect.

But here's what I would tell people. If you don't own any silver, then it's not too late. Because this isn't about chasing a rising price. It's about protecting your future. You're not buying hype. You're not betting on a trend. Think of it this way. You're just exchanging devalued dollars for honest money.

Silver is real. It's finite or limited. It's essential, and it's being used up faster than it could be replaced. Can it go down in price? Absolutely. You should expect volatility. But if you study the fundamentals, and you should, I think you'll find that the long-term prospects look strong.

Now, if your financial adviser hasn't mentioned any of this to you, hasn't suggested an allocation of silver, hasn't brought up supply deficits, rising industrial demand, or the fact that silver was just declared a strategic metal, then honestly, you might want to re-evaluate them or consider sending them this blog post or let them watch my YouTube video.

Here's what I believe. You don't need to be an expert to see what's happening. You just need to open your eyes and think for yourself. The cracks in the system are showing. The signs are all over the place.

If this is really the beginning of the panic stage of a new major commodity cycle, if this is truly the great silver melt-up, then years from now, people will look back and say that was the moment everything changed. Supply was tight, demand was exploding, and the systems that kept the silver price suppressed, they failed.

And if you figured it out before the masses, then consider yourself lucky because we could be witnessing the destruction of a manipulated market in real time.

And if you want to know about how the Hunt brothers almost cornered the silver market way back in 1980, then you need to watch my YouTube video here. It's really good.

Thanks so much for reading, and see you in the next blog post.