Is a COMEX Failure Imminent? Clive Thompson’s Silver Market Warning

Is a COMEX Silver Squeeze Brewing in 2026?

Silver has been on a wild ride lately. In January, it hit new all-time highs, but by the end of the month, a sharp correction began. Was it overdue? Maybe. Was it overdone? Possibly. And was there manipulation? Many, including myself, think so.

London trader Andrew Maguire puts it well: “Realizing all markets are manipulated gives you a tremendous advantage.”

I’m not here to tell you to buy silver or predict next week’s prices. Instead, I focus on the big picture, looking at fundamentals and long-term trends. And recently, some research by UK financial analyst Clive Thompson caught my attention.

What Clive Thompson Says About COMEX

Clive’s claim is serious: the COMEX silver market is experiencing much higher physical delivery demand than normal. March could be a reckoning month.

What is COMEX?

COMEX is the silver futures exchange under CME. It exists so producers, refiners, and major users can hedge against price risk. Most contracts never result in physical delivery—they’re rolled forward, closed out, or settled in cash. Typically, only 5–10% of contracts stand for actual delivery.

But according to Clive, that behavior has changed. Record numbers of contracts are demanding physical silver—even in months that are usually minor.

If this trend continues into March, the biggest delivery month of the year, COMEX could face serious stress.

Breaking Down the Numbers

January 2026: The First Alarm

• January 2024: ~7 million ounces delivered

• January 2025: ~12 million ounces delivered

• January 2026: nearly 50 million ounces delivered

That’s far above normal. Clive suggests large players may be front-running deliveries, taking silver early in case it isn’t available later. Minor months behaving like major ones is a warning sign.

February 2026: The Smoking Gun

By early February, nearly every open contract was standing for delivery—almost 100%. Normally, that doesn’t happen. When this occurs, futures markets start acting like a physical drawdown mechanism rather than a hedging tool.

March 2026: The COMEX Stress Test

March is traditionally the largest delivery month. Even moderate delivery demand could exceed available registered silver:

• Open interest: 120+ million ounces

• Registered silver available: 70–80 million ounces

Clive isn’t predicting a COMEX collapse, but March could be a major stress test, testing the market in ways it hasn’t seen before.

What Could Happen: How Exchanges Respond

Exchanges usually manage stress quietly:

• Margin hikes

• Rule changes

• Incentives to settle in cash

For example, during the Hunt Brothers’ silver saga, COMEX imposed Rule 7, allowing only liquidation of positions—silver prices dropped 80% over weeks.

If March gets tight, the focus may be on how exchanges respond, not a market default. Their actions could either build or erode confidence in the paper silver market.

Does Clive’s Math Hold Up?

Clive converts contracts to ounces and compares delivery demand to registered supply. He’s ahead of typical silver commentary.

• Delivery behavior did change in 2025—minor months acted like major ones

• February delivery demand is off the charts

But some details may need closer scrutiny. Open interest does not equal delivery intent, and registered silver isn’t a fixed number. Eligible silver exists in COMEX warehouses but is owned by someone else—available supply can change with price or incentives.

Exchanges can also invoke force majeure to force cash settlements, meaning anyone expecting silver could receive dollars instead.

Global Context: Physical Silver Tightness

This isn’t just a COMEX story. Silver supply is tight globally:

• Shanghai silver inventories have dropped to 350 tons (11.2 million ounces), an 88% drop from the 2021 peak

• Starting January 2026, China banned most silver exports, except for select firms

Lease rates—the cost to borrow physical silver—have spiked over 6%, signaling tight supply. While not proof of a squeeze, it’s another piece of the puzzle.

What This Means for 2026

Even if March passes quietly, these trends matter. Paper markets work until they don’t. Trust wears down slowly:

1. Delivery delays

2. Rising premiums

3. Market participants lose confidence

Clive Thompson’s analysis signals underlying stress in the silver market. Physical silver is being treated differently than it was a year ago. Keep an eye on upcoming delivery months: May, July, September, and December.

Final Thoughts

I’m not predicting panic or default, and this isn’t financial advice. But ignoring this data would be unwise. The silver market is showing signs of stress, and understanding these trends can give you an edge if you follow the fundamentals.

For a deeper dive, I highly recommend checking out Clive Thompson’s full breakdown.

Thanks for reading!